The coronavirus outbreak in the United States is likely to get so bad that the country will see more than 1,000 deaths per day from Covid-19 over an “extended period of time,” according to former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration Dr. Scott Gottlieb said Tuesday.
The US reported more than 84,000 new cases of the virus and 557 new deaths Covid-19 on Monday, according to the Johns Hopkins University. Although the number of deaths recorded on Mondays is well below average, historical data shows. The country has reported an average of 835 new Covid-19 deaths per day per day for the past week, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins data.
That’s far less than the daily death toll this spring, when, according to Johns Hopkins, an average of more than 2,000 people died from the disease each day, mostly in New York state. During the summer surge after Memorial Day, the country reported about 1,000 deaths a day in August, the data shows.
Gottlieb said the next few months could prove to be “the thickest period of the pandemic”.
“We are likely to see significant spread across the United States in a confluent epidemic for which we are much better prepared. So I don’t think we will see the excessive death we have seen with.” the first wave of this pandemic when it hit New York, “he continued.”Squawk box. “
“But the mere fact that we’re going to infect so many people now will likely mean the death toll will rise well over 1,000 over time.”
Gottlieb added that the next few months will likely be “the last acute phase of this pandemic that we have to go through” and that 2021 will look better.
The virus is now spreading across the country, even more than in earlier phases of the pandemic like this spring and summer. The 7-day average of daily new cases has increased by at least 5% in 38 states and the District of Columbia, according to Johns Hopkins. According to CNBC analysis, the average daily new cases are falling by at least as much in just six states.
Despite repeated claims by the President Donald TrumpA test alone cannot explain the increase in cases. One of his own top officials, Adm. Brett Giroir, Deputy Minister of Health, confirmed last week.
“Like the nation after Memorial Day, we are at another critical point in the pandemic response,” Giroir said on Wednesday. “Cases are growing in most states in the country. Hospitalizations have increased, although we still have tens of thousands of hospitalizations below July, but that is increasing. And we are starting to increase the death toll.”
The average number of Covid-19 patients currently hospitalized has increased by at least 5% in 40 states and the District of Columbia. This comes from a CNBC analysis of data from the Covid tracking project, which records tests, hospital stays, and other outbreak data. It is run by journalists in the Atlantic.
According to CNBC analysis, average hospital stays are declining in only two states: Delaware and Hawaii.
Doctors and scientists have made some advances in the treatment of Covid-19, which has lowered the death rate from the disease caused by the coronavirus. Gilead‘s antiviral drug Remdesivir was shown To help speed recovery for some patients, the steroid dexamethasone has significantly reduced the risk of death for seriously ill patients.
However, Gottlieb said the outbreak still threatens to overwhelm hospitals in the United States. The current epidemic is so widespread across the country that it will be more difficult to move scarce resources such as trained health workers to where they are most needed.
“It will be a problem,” he said on Tuesday. “There are going to be parts of the country that are going to be under a lot of pressure and the challenge is that because you have a more diffuse epidemic across the country, you will not be able to stop so many local regions with very dense epidemics . “
“It’s going to keep increasing over the next three weeks, and Thanksgiving is likely to be a tipping point where the spread will be so diffuse that by December I think we’ll have to take more focused action to try to slow it down.” certain activities, “he said.
– Charts from CNBCs Nate Rattner.
Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC employee and a member of the boards of directors of Pfizer, the genetic testing startup Tempus, and the biotech company Illumina. Pfizer has signed a manufacturing agreement with Gilead to manufacture Remdesivir. Gottlieb is also co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean’s Healthy Sail Panel.